My 2026 Outlook for MSPs: Four Trends and What to Do About Them

As we settle into 2026, I’ve been thinking a lot about where the MSP industry is headed this year. Some of these predictions are exciting, others are just realistic assessments of what’s coming. Either way, if you run an MSP, you need to be thinking about these trends now. The decisions you make in the next few months will determine whether you’re leading or lagging by year-end.

Let’s dive into four major trends I’m watching and what you should actually do about them.

Someone Will Crack the AI Billing Code

Most MSPs are still billing for AI work the same way they bill for everything else. Hourly rates or per-seat licensing. And look, I get it. It’s familiar, it’s what clients expect, and it’s easy to explain.

But billing in this fashion will NOT move the needle for your business in the game changing way that folks have been talking about AI for MSPs. We MUST figure out how to bill based on outcome.

The issue I’m seeing is that nobody has really cracked the AI Billing Code yet. At most, I’ve heard some anecdotal evidence that so and so is doing this. It’s always second or third hand, so it’s clearly not cracked yet.

In 2026, someone is going to figure out how to bill for AI based on outcomes or agent usage, and when they do, they’re going to blow past the competition. Traditional billing models don’t capture the actual value AI delivers. Clients are used to paying by the hour or license. We need to shift their focus from how many hours you spent or how many licenses you deployed. They should care about results: processes automated, decisions supported, compliance reports generated. It’s our job to help show them the business outcomes they’re looking for.

The technology is mature enough now that value-based pricing isn’t theoretical anymore. The MSPs who experiment with outcome-based models this year will create a significant competitive advantage. First movers always do.

Security Certifications Will Separate Winners from Everyone Else

If you went all-in on security certifications in 2025 (CMMC, SOC 2, whatever applies to your market), you’re about to see that investment pay off. Big time.

The gap between certified and non-certified MSPs is going to widen significantly in 2026. Compliance work isn’t just nice to have anymore. For defense contractors, government work, and regulated industries, these certifications are table stakes. The doors simply won’t budge without them.

Here’s the critical question though: Do your target clients actually need these certifications?

If yes (and especially if you have your certification game on point), your marketing should be screaming about this. Create content, case studies, and outreach that specifically highlights your compliance capabilities. Don’t assume prospects know what CMMC means or why they should care. You invested the time and money to get certified. Now invest the effort to market it properly.

If your target clients don’t need these certifications, I wouldn’t run out and get certified. Obviously, you MUST take care of your clients’ security with a solid security practice. That’s today’s baseline. If your target clients don’t need you to be certified you have better things to do with your time.

The M&A Market Reality: Clean Books and Organic Growth Win

The acquisition market will stay active in 2026, but it’s going to be flat. Buyers have options, which means they can be selective. And what they’re selecting for is changing.

Clean financials and organic growth are non-negotiable now. “Growth by acquisition” on your books doesn’t impress buyers like it used to. They also want to see that you can grow what you have. If you cannot grow your business through your own sales efforts I would expect at least a slightly smaller multiple. Conversely, if you can walk and chew gum at the same time you should see that represented in an offer for your business.

And when I say clean books, I mean clean books. No surprises, no weird “owner’ stuff, clear revenue recognition, proper documentation. Buyers are doing their homework, and if your financials don’t tell a clear, honest story, expect a lower number when that napkin gets pushed across the table.

Here’s what you need to do: If you’re thinking about selling your business in the next three to five years, the time to get your house in order is now. Get your financials in shape. Document everything. Focus on organic growth metrics. Want to sell sooner? Double down on this now.

Even if you’re not planning to sell, running a “sellable” business makes it a better business. The discipline required to keep clean books and show consistent organic growth translates directly into a more profitable, more sustainable operation.

Midterm Elections Might Be More Disruptive Than Usual

Here’s the wildcard: the midterm elections this year might create more business caution than we typically see in a non-presidential election year. Uncertainty freezes decision-making, and businesses delay projects when they can’t predict the regulatory or policy environment.

This cycle feels different. I’m not saying it’s doom and gloom, but it’s realistic to factor this into your Q3 and Q4 planning. Some of your prospects are going to hesitate. Some projects will get pushed. It’s just the reality of operating in an uncertain environment.

But here’s the opportunity: while some MSPs will freeze along with their prospects, decisive MSPs will gain market share. When others are cautious, the bold win.

Execute While Others Hesitate

So what do you actually do with all this information? Four things:

• First, rethink your AI pricing now. Start experimenting with outcome-based models. Test with a few clients. Don’t be the MSP playing catch-up in 12 months.
• Second, if you invested in security certifications, market them aggressively. Make sure your target audience knows what you can do and why it matters to them specifically.
• Third, clean up your business whether you’re selling or not. Get your financials in order. Focus on organic growth. Document your processes. Run your MSP like someone might want to buy it someday, even if that day is years away.
• Fourth, double down on client satisfaction and watch for opportunities. Election uncertainty will make some competitors freeze. This creates opportunity for MSPs who stay focused and decisive. Retention is vital in uncertain times. Keep your clients happy, watch for competitors struggling, and leverage your differentiators (business consulting, AI capabilities, security expertise) to stand above the competition.

Final Thoughts

2026 won’t be easy, but it’s full of opportunity for strategic MSPs. The winners will be those who act on these insights, not just acknowledge them.

AI billing innovation, security certification leverage, M&A readiness, navigating uncertainty. These aren’t just trends to watch. They’re areas where you can take decisive action right now to position your MSP ahead of the pack.

Which of these four areas are you focusing on first? I’d love to hear what you’re prioritizing in 2026.